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Romney Leads in SC???

    My colleague David Bernstein has the latest poll from South Carolina which seems to show an upsurge of support for Mitt Romney.
    If it's true (a big if) and if it holds (a bigger if), Mitt is putting himself in a position to run the table in January. And, if that happens, it's just about over -- even before we get to Super Tuesday on February 5.

  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    Willard Mitt Romney is able to run the table in January because he has invested heavily in advertising and organizational work in the early primary states - sort of a "domino theory."  Helping him out is that Republican primaries - unlike Democratic primaries - are held on a "winner take all" basis in allocating delegates.  Top vote getter gets all the delegates available through the primary - doesn't matter the margin of victory, doesn't matter whether majority or plurality (more likely in a multi-candidate field).

    Each state also has a number of "Super Delegates" assigned based on the number of their Congressional representatives.  South Carolina has 8 such delegates going to the Republican National Convention.  (Democrats would also have 8 for their convention).  6 US Representatives and 2 US Senators.  Super Delegates may vote as they choose and are not obliged to follow primary returns.

    South Carolina, moreso than any other early primary/caucus state, will test the viability of Romney's Mormon faith as an issue. Voting analyses in characteristically Religious Right areas - and especially the votes of the autonomous Super Delegates - are worth a close look.

    October 31, 2007 11:53 AM

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