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First Poll to Show McCain in Lead in NH Appears

    With only, believe it or not, a week to go until New Hampshire, Boston's Channel 7, along with Suffolk University, has new numbers for both parties in NH. They are:

    McCain 30%
    Romney 25%
    Giuliani 14%

    and

    Clinton 36%
    Obama 22%
    Edwards 14%

    This is the first poll of which we're aware that has McCain ahead of Romney, though it certainly reflects the trend over the past two weeks.
    The guess here is that what McCain has to be concerned about Thursday in Iowa -- as much as a Romney victory -- is a massive showing by Obama (a la the Des Moines Register poll results) that convinces some independents in NH to leave McCain for Obama.
   

  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    Wow!  Great insight that New Hampshire independent voters may forsake McCain, take a Democratic ballot and vote for Obama based on his showing in the Iowa caucuses held 5 days before the storied New Hampshire primary.  Good one! John and Barack have polar-opposite personalities. Yet, McCain and Obama have an outsider status in their respective parties - the feisty straight-talking McCain and the cerebral Washington-outsider Obama. Obama's politics hew to the traditional (example: his national health insurance plan, similair to Clinton and Edwards, would be voluntary with theirs mandatory) and McCain's are bolder (example: advocating an Iraq Troop Surge many months before Bush took up the idea). Each conveys the image of thinking outside the box while respecting the accepted foundations.  Obama may be the McCain of 2008 for the Granite State's independent voters who often like to challenge the conventional wisdom and foregone conclusion.  They'll take a chance but not take a risk. Iowa's cornfields may indeed cast long shadows onto the White Mountains.

    January 1, 2008 11:39 PM

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