Rasmussen Has Obama Way Up in NH But There's Good News in the Poll for McCain Too
The first Rasmussen post-Iowa New
Hampshire poll has Obama ten points ahead of Clinton -- 37%-27% -- with
Edwards lurking in the high teens.
But there's also good news in this Democratic poll
for John McCain. Rasmussen estimates that 40% of the NH Democratic vote
total will be composed of Independents. That's exactly the percentage
of Independents in the Democratic NH primary electorate in 2000
(when McCain beat George Bush in the other contest) -- which means that
enough Independents should be left over to vote in the GOP primary on Tuesday and provide McCain the boost
he needs.
Right now, the auspices look favorable in NH for both Obama and McCain.
Update: Rasmussen's numbers now show a five-point lead in NH for McCain. No surprise there. His poll today has the percentage of Independents voting in the GOP primary at 32%, down from 41% in 2000. McCain can survive that kind of drop -- but a drop to below 30% and he's courting disappointment.
