Guest Blog Pundit Vic Sholis: The Battle for Texas
This is it, folks. After months of skirmishes across
the country, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in
Texas for the next two weeks, waging what possibly is
a fight to the death.
Texas is the biggest state left on the Democrats'
calendar, and both sides acknowledge that for Clinton
to survive, she must win in Texas. So what's it look
like?
Early conventional wisdom held that because Latinos
will comprise 30 to 40 percent of the Democratic
turnout, Clinton had the edge. However, like most
"conventional wisdom", the facts are a little more
complex. And its in the details that Clinton has her
work cut out for her.
First, Texas has what's known as the "Texas Two-Step"
- a combination primary and caucus on the same day.
Essentially, two-thirds of the state's convention
delegates are awarded based on the primary vote, with
the rest awarded in the caucuses. To date, the Obama
forces have routed the Clinton folks in caucus states.
However, be assured - the Clintons this time are
really focused on THIS caucus, so expect a fight for
every delegate.
Further complicating the picture, primary-result
delegates are not strictly determined by the popular
vote. Rather, convention delegates are apportioned by
state senate district, based on Democratic voter
turnout in recent elections. And the problem for
Clinton is that in those recent elections, Latino
turnout in South Texas has been lighter than the
turnout in the Black districts of Houston, Dallas, and
San Antonio, as well as the more affluent, liberal
districts around Austin - Obama's core constituencies.
So even if Latinos turn out in higher numbers than in
the past, they'll drive fewer convention delegates to
Clinton.
Also, there is much anecdotal evidence that Clinton's
core base of Latino voters is starting to crack, as
Obama's message starts to take hold among younger
Latinos. If that happens, Clinton could be in real
trouble.
Further, among whites, Obama also has reason to feel
encouraged. There's a local saying that all the white
Democrats in Texas have turned Republican. However,
the ones that remain tend to be the more affluent,
liberal types, that would naturally favor Obama.
Plus, the continuing migration of blue-collar white
males (i.e. the John Edwards base) to Obama that we
saw in the Potomac states and Wisconsin should
continue in Texas.
Finally, Clinton has to face the challenge that Obama
has lots of time to campaign there, and in this
election season, when Obama's been able to campaign
"in person", as in South Carolina, Virginia, and
Wisconsin, his "movement" takes hold, with devastating
results for her.
He seems to be working the same magic in Texas. This
week he's appeared before standing-room-only crowds of
20,000 at the Toyota Center in Houston, and 17,000 at
Reunion Arena in Dallas. He has another mega-rally
scheduled in Austin tonight. If the Obama
"movement" catches fire in Texas, it may be all over.
Another worrisome sign for her, although newspaper
endorsements don't mean what they once did, all five
of Texas' major morning papers - in Houston, Dallas,
Austin, San Antonio, and Ft. Worth - have endorsed
Obama. All supported George Bush in the past, but it
looks like Texans may be ready for Obama's message of
"change".
Another factor - Texas allows independents to vote in
its Democratic primary, another advantage to Obama.
Finally, the Obama campaign has a much bigger
financial warchest than Clinton's, and certainly
recognizes the opportunity to knock her out for good
in Texas. They outspent her in Wisconsin, and won't
hesitate to do so in Texas.
So, does all this mean Hillary is finished? Of course
not. She still is a very appealing, formidable,
Democratic candidate for President, with a
resourceful, resilient organization. It just means that she's
going to need to bring everything she's got to this one, because she's
in the fight of her life.
Clinton's recent double-digit lead in the polls in
Texas has evaporated, so get ready for a Texas-size
fight to the finish. And now it's for all the marbles.
No excuses - no spin. Texas votes in eleven days,
and the game's on the line. And both candidates know
it.
May the best candidate win!
